How were StablecoinX's USDEW warrants priced through October 9, 2026?

USDEW, the listed warrant of StablecoinX Inc., closed below its estimated value in a $10 call at each of the 13 sessions from September 21 to October 7, 2026, by 2.7% to 18.2% with a median of 11.6%. On October 8 and 9 it closed within 0.5% of that value, and on October 9 it closed at $3.64 against $3.66.

The $10 provision lets StablecoinX buy back every public warrant for $0.10 once USDE, its Class A stock on Nasdaq, has closed at or above $10 on 20 of 30 trading days. Holders can instead exercise without paying cash, a cashless exercise, and receive a fraction of a share from a make-whole table in the warrant terms, never more than 0.361 of a share. Call value is an estimate of that payout. It applies the table to each day's USDE close in place of the ten-day average price after a notice, with a redemption date 30 days later. The gaps on October 8 and 9 were inside the estimate's own uncertainty, since the company would choose the redemption date.

USDE first closed above $10 on September 18, twelve weeks after its first session on June 26. The price test for a $10 call had not been met by October 9. USDE had closed at or above $10 on 16 of the 30 sessions to that date, four short of the 20 that the warrant agreement requires. The company's second-quarter 10-Q describes the test as 10 closes within 20 trading days, which USDE would have met on October 1, but the agreement governs, and StablecoinX's September 14 prospectus also gives 20 within 30. No filing through October 9 announced a call.

A second provision allows a call at $0.01 a warrant after 20 closes at or above $18 within 30 trading days. USDE's highest close since June 26 was $17.25, on September 25. That day USDEW closed at $6.02, $0.27 above its exercise value of $5.75, the stock price less the $11.50 exercise price, with more than four and a half years left before the warrants expire on June 25, 2031.

USDEW closed below its call value from September 21 to October 7

The table gives each session from USDE's first close above $10. Table shares come from the make-whole table at that session's close, for a redemption date 30 days later, the earliest a notice that day would allow. Call value is table shares times the close. The last column uses unrounded values.

Before September 18 USDE closed below both $10 and the $11.50 exercise price, so USDEW had no exercise value and all of its price was time value, the part of a warrant's price above its exercise value.

How a $10 call would work

The terms are in a warrant agreement between TLGY Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company, and its warrant agent, dated as of November 30, 2021. StablecoinX assumed it under an assignment and amendment agreement of June 25, 2026, when it completed its business combination with TLGY, and the amendment left the expiry and redemption sections unchanged. StablecoinX's resale prospectus of September 14, 2026 describes the same terms on pages 93 to 98, though it ends the test's window three business days before a notice rather than on the third trading day.

Each of the roughly 11.5 million public warrants buys one Class A share for $11.50 until 5 pm New York time on June 25, 2031, five years after the business combination. Paying cash needs an effective registration statement and a current prospectus for the warrant shares. The prices and share numbers in the terms adjust for events such as stock splits.

For a $10 call, USDE's last reported sale price must be at least $10 on 20 trading days within the 30-trading-day period that ends on the third trading day before the notice. The notice must come at least 30 days before the redemption date the company fixes. Until that date holders can exercise for cash or by cashless exercise. A cashless exercise gives the number of shares in the make-whole table for the months from the redemption date to expiry and for the ten-day average price, USDE's volume-weighted average price over the ten trading days after the notice, interpolated in straight lines between the table's rows and prices on a 365- or 366-day year. Warrants not exercised by the redemption date are bought back for $0.10 each.

The table runs from $10 to $18 and from 60 months before expiry to none. With 54 to 57 months left, as for a redemption date in late 2026, it gives 0.252 to 0.257 shares at $10 and 0.361 at $18. Below $18 a cashless exercise gives a holder more than paying $11.50 would. At $18 the two are about equal, 0.361 × $18 = $6.498 against $6.50, so while USDE is below $18 a $10 call would cap a warrant's value at its table shares.

The $18 provision allows a call at $0.01 a warrant after the same test at $18, also on 30 days' notice, while the warrants are exercisable and an effective registration statement and current prospectus cover the warrant shares through the notice period. Holders can exercise before the redemption date.

The prospectus says StablecoinX cannot call the 7,624,586 warrants it issued privately to TLGY's former sponsors on August 21, 2026, 3,267,679 at $11.50 and 4,356,907 at $15.00, while those holders or their permitted transferees keep them, as the agreement's Section 6.5 provides. The agreement's Section 3.2 keeps such warrants exercisable past a redemption date only when the call follows the $18 test, so the filings leave open what a $10 call below that level would mean for them.

The price test had not been met by October 9

USDE closed at $10.19 on September 18 and at or above $10 at every session after it, 16 sessions to October 9. The agreement's test needs 20 within 30 trading days, so it had not been met at the October 9 close. The StablecoinX dashboard counts these closes in its call-trigger watch, and the September review followed the count to October 2.

The second-quarter 10-Q, filed August 14, describes both tests, in its Note 9, as 10 trading days within a 20-trading-day period. Under that wording USDE would have met the $10 test with its tenth close above $10, on October 1. The agreement, which governs, and the September 14 prospectus both say 20 within 30.

USDE traded as high as $18.11 on September 30 but closed at $16.08, and the tests count each day's last reported sale. When checked at 23:02 UTC on October 9, EDGAR, the SEC's filing system, listed no filing under StablecoinX's name after five Form 4 ownership reports by its directors on October 2. The company's own latest filings were a current report on Form 8-K and a prospectus supplement on September 17. The terms give StablecoinX the right to call the warrants and do not require it to.

A $10 call would add about 3.4 million shares

At the October 9 close, with a redemption date 30 days later, the make-whole table gave 0.2973 of a share per warrant. The company's current report of July 2 counted 11,499,988 public warrants outstanding after the business combination. A cashless exercise of all of them on those terms would add about 3.42 million Class A shares, fewer after rounding down fractional shares, and bring in no cash. That is 14.2% of the 24,029,375 Class A shares the prospectus counted on August 28, and also 14.2% of the 24,139,375 in the site's dataset after directors' share grants on September 30.

Paying $11.50 for every warrant would instead add about 11.5 million shares and $132 million, but below $18 a holder gets more from the table. At the $12.30 close, paying $11.50 was worth $0.80 a warrant against $3.66 in table shares.

How the figures were built

Daily closes for USDE and USDEW come from S&P Global Market Intelligence through StockAnalysis, read on October 9. The current report of July 2 dates the first trading of both to June 26. USDEW's history in that source started on June 29, and the two series shared 71 sessions from then to October 9. The source showed no USDEW row for July 17 or August 18. The prospectus cover gives September 8 closes of $7.61 and $2.09, which match.

Call value takes each session's close in place of the ten-day average price and a redemption date 30 days after the session. Table rows are dated by counting whole months back from June 25, 2031, so the 57-month row falls on September 25, 2026 and the 54-month row on December 25, 2026, and the interpolation between them runs by days. For an October 9 notice that gives 55.55 months.

A later redemption date lowers the call value slightly. With 60 days the gaps on October 8 and 9 were about 0% and −0.1%, and with 90 days +0.3% and +0.2%. From September 21 to October 7 USDEW stayed at least 2.5% below its call value under either.

What these figures leave out

A call would use the ten-day average price, which can differ from any single close. The call value leaves out what a warrant would be worth if no call came, and the cost of trading. A gap between USDEW and its call value does not show what the market expects StablecoinX to do.

The two closes are each security's last trade of the session and need not have happened at the same moment. StockAnalysis showed closes rounded to the cent, and its daily changes implied USDEW closes of $6.015 on September 25, $5.165 on September 30 and $3.885 on October 8, which would widen those gaps by about 0.1 percentage point.

Reproduce the numbers

The main script checks every input against its recorded SHA-256, that the price history matches the prospectus cover, that the table rises with price and falls toward expiry, and that its interpolation returns the table's own values. If any check fails, the script stops before writing its tables. Download the per-session table, the chart's lines or the calculation files and source inputs.

exercise value           = max(USDE close − 11.50, 0)
                         = 12.30 − 11.50 = $0.80 on October 9
table shares             = make-whole table at the close, redemption date 30 days later
                         = 0.2973 at $12.30 and 55.55 months to expiry, October 9
call value               = table shares × USDE close
                         = 0.2973 × 12.30 = $3.66
USDEW against call value = USDEW close ÷ call value − 1
                         = 3.64 ÷ 3.657 − 1 = −0.5%

The StablecoinX dashboard tracks USDE's share price against the token treasury the company reports, along with its warrants and options. The warrant payoff guide explains the payoff at expiry, and the methodology page defines the site's figures.

Analysis of public market data. Not investment advice.